Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,294$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(619 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $153$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(36.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(117.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $703$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,012$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,465.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(91,465.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,744$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,562.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,562.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $75,268$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,334$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(102.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,675.5}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,675.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $256$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(109 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(93.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{244.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(244.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $326$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,466$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,245.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,245.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $329$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(125 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{326.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(326.1\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $187$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,235$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(4.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,019.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 45.1)}}\) (asimptote \(13,019.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $616$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(247 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{599.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(599.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $732$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,915$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(918 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(121.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,818.9}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,818.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.85 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(138.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $80$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $70,314$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,691.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(61,691.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,850$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,632.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,632.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,866$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $307,251$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{289,362.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.5)}}\) (asimptote \(289,362.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46,295$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,107.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(44,107.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $259,511$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $248,229$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(8.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,427.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,427.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,166$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(84.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,376.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,376.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,474$ on 2020-08-03
